MeritValue

HighPeak Energy, Inc.

HPKdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

HighPeak Energy, Inc. earns about 7% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 32% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $7.86 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$220.1M1$755.7M2$1.13B3$1.12B3$863.4M3
Net income$55.6M4$236.9M5$215.9M6$95.1M6$19M6
Operating cash flow$147M7$504M8$756.4M9$690.4M9$511.6M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$195.9M10$1.41B11$2.3B12$2.1B13$2.39B13
Cash & equivalents$34.9M14$30.5M15$194.5M16$86.6M17$162.1M17
Diluted shares94.8M111.2M123.0M129.2M125.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$127.23
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.51
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$190.35

10 shares is a claim on $127.23 of net worth that earned you $1.51 last year, against $190.35 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 11%FY23 9%FY24 6%FY25 3%

It earned an average 7% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+32% shares · 5y

Share count is up 32% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 1118% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$7.86
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$95.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$6.33
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006816 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006838 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007770 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006816 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006838 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007770 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006816 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006838 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007770 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005522 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006816 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006838 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007770 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005522 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006816 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006838 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007770 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)