MeritValue

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co

HPEdata completeness 100%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co earns about 6% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $15.85 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$27.8B1$28.5B2$29.1B3$30.1B3$34.3B3
Net income$3.43B4$868M5$2.03B6$2.58B6$57M6
Operating cash flow$5.87B7$4.59B8$4.43B9$4.34B9$2.92B9
Capital expenditure$2.5B10$3.12B11$2.83B12$2.37B12$2.29B12
Free cash flow (derived)$3.37B7$1.47B8$1.6B9$1.97B9$627M9
Total debt$22.2B13$25B14$25.5B15$31.1B16$34.8B16
Cash & equivalents$4B17$4.16B18$4.27B19$14.8B20$5.77B20
Diluted shares1.33B1.32B1.32B1.34B1.32B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$186.47
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.43
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.74
Debt you’d be carrying
$262.55

10 shares is a claim on $186.47 of net worth that earned you $0.43 and generated $4.74 of cash last year, against $262.55 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 3%FY23 6%FY24 8%FY25 1%

It earned an average 6% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 57% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth2.8%
  • fcfBase$1.6B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth2.8%
  • fcfBase$1.6B
Earnings Power Value
$15.85
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.03B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001645590-23-000117 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001645590-24-000139 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001645590-25-000130 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001645590-23-000117 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001645590-24-000139 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001645590-25-000130 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001645590-23-000117 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001645590-24-000139 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001645590-25-000130 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001645590-23-000117 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001645590-24-000139 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001645590-25-000130 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001645590-22-000071 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001645590-23-000117 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001645590-24-000139 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-10-31 · accession 0001645590-25-000130 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001645590-22-000071 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001645590-23-000117 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001645590-24-000139 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-10-31 · accession 0001645590-25-000130 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)