MeritValue

Helmerich & Payne, Inc.

HPdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Helmerich & Payne, Inc. earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.73 and $74.31 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.21B1$2.05B2$2.86B3$2.75B3$3.68B3
Net income−$326.2M4$6.95M5$434.1M6$344.2M6−$163.7M6
Operating cash flow$136.4M7$233.9M8$833.7M9$684.7M9$543M9
Capital expenditure$82.1M10$250.9M11$395.5M12$495.1M12$426.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$54.3M7−$17M8$438.2M9$189.6M9$116.6M9
Total debt$2.05B13$1.09B14$545.1M15$3.56B16$4.13B16
Cash & equivalents$917.5M17$232.1M18$257.2M19$217.3M19$196.8M19
Diluted shares107.8M106.6M102.9M99.1M99.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$285.01
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$16.49
Free cash flow it threw off
$11.74
Debt you’d be carrying
$415.82

10 shares is a claim on $285.01 of net worth that earned you −$16.49 and generated $11.74 of cash last year, against $415.82 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 -8%FY22 1%FY23 15%FY24 5%FY25 -1%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 101% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.73 and $74.31 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$74.31
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$189.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$22.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$189.6M
Earnings Power Value
$0.73
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.95M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $22.67
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$12.31
Base20.0%$22.67
Bull20.0%$22.67

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000046765-23-000069 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000046765-24-000076 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000046765-25-000071 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000046765-23-000069 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000046765-24-000076 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000046765-25-000071 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000046765-23-000069 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000046765-24-000076 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000046765-25-000071 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000046765-23-000069 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000046765-24-000076 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000046765-25-000071 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000046765-22-000070 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000046765-23-000069 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000046765-24-000076 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000046765-25-000071 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000046765-23-000069 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000046765-24-000076 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000046765-25-000071 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)