MeritValue

Hour Loop, Inc

HOURdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Hour Loop, Inc earns about -38% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.14 and $0.19 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$62.8M1$95.9M2$132.1M3$138.3M4$142.4M4
Net income$4.78M5−$1.48M6−$2.43M7$657,4478$1.7M8
Operating cash flow$7.76M9−$11.6M10−$2.06M11$313,14012$2.58M12
Capital expenditure$16,11513$339,51814$14,82315$35,99616$78,11316
Free cash flow (derived)$7.75M9−$11.9M10−$2.08M11$277,14412$2.5M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$10.6M17$4.56M18$2.48M18——
Diluted shares33.3M35.0M35.1M35.1M35.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.48
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.71
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $1.99 of net worth that earned you $0.48 and generated $0.71 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-38% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -62%FY23 -127%FY24 13%FY25 24%

It earned about -38% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.14 and $0.19 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.15
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$277,144
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.14
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$277,144
Earnings Power Value
$0.19
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$657,447
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$0.47
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.14
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.11
Base5.0%$0.14
Bull10.0%$0.17

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010279 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-011298 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000930 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-012278 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010279 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-011298 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000930 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-012278 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010279 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-011298 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000930 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-012278 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010279 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-011298 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000930 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-012278 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010279 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-011298 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)