MeritValue

Robinhood Markets, Inc.

HOODdata completeness 75%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Robinhood Markets, Inc. earns about -39% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 87% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.82B1$1.36B2$1.87B3$2.95B3$4.47B3
Net income−$3.69B4−$1.03B5−$541M6$1.41B6$1.88B6
Operating cash flow−$885M7−$852M8$1.18B9−$157M9$1.64B9
Capital expenditure$63M10$28M10———
Free cash flow (derived)−$948M7−$880M8———
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$6.25B11$6.34B12$4.84B13$4.33B13$4.26B13
Diluted shares492.4M878.6M890.9M906.2M918.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$99.6
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$20.49
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $99.6 of net worth that earned you $20.49 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-39% avg · 5y
FY21 -260%FY22 -77%FY23 17%FY24 60%FY25 66%

It earned an average -39% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+87% shares · 5y

Share count is up 87% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$21.43
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001783879-24-000054 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001783879-25-000049 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001783879-26-000029 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001783879-24-000054 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001783879-25-000049 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001783879-26-000029 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001783879-24-000054 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001783879-25-000049 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001783879-26-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001783879-23-000045 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001783879-24-000054 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001783879-25-000049 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001783879-26-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)