MeritValue

HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC

HONdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $76.87 and $89.34 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$34.4B1$35.5B2$33B3$34.7B3$37.4B3
Net income$5.54B4$4.97B5$5.66B6$5.71B6$4.73B6
Operating cash flow$6.04B7$5.27B8$5.34B9$6.1B9$6.41B9
Capital expenditure$895M10$766M11$741M12$871M12$986M12
Free cash flow (derived)$5.14B7$4.51B8$4.6B9$5.23B9$5.42B9
Total debt$19.6B13$19.6B14$20.4B14$31.5B15$34.9B16
Cash & equivalents$11B17$9.63B18$7.93B19$9.91B20$12.5B20
Diluted shares700.4M683.1M668.2M655.3M642.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$216.3
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$73.57
Free cash flow it threw off
$84.35
Debt you’d be carrying
$543.54

10 shares is a claim on $216.3 of net worth that earned you $73.57 and generated $84.35 of cash last year, against $543.54 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 21%FY22 19%FY23 17%FY24 12%FY25 12%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 78% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $76.87 and $89.34 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$76.87
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.5%
  • fcfBase$5.23B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.5%
  • fcfBase$5.23B
Earnings Power Value
$89.34
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$5.54B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$59.85
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $84
The three cases
Bear0.0%$81.23
Base0.5%$84
Bull5.5%$112.67

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000773840-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000773840-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000773840-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000773840-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000773840-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000773840-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000773840-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000773840-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000773840-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000773840-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000773840-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000773840-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000773840-23-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000773840-24-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000773840-25-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000773840-26-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000773840-23-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000773840-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000773840-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000773840-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)