MeritValue

HOME BANCSHARES INC

HOMBdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HOME BANCSHARES INC earns about 26% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 20% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $21.09 and $30.63 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$625.2M1$877.8M2$1.18B3$1.3B3$1.28B3
Net income——$392.9M4$402.2M4$475.4M4
Operating cash flow$389.4M5$413.2M6$379.7M7$460.6M7$399.3M7
Capital expenditure$10.3M8$19.6M9$22.5M10$38.5M10$22.3M10
Free cash flow (derived)$379.1M5$393.6M6$357.2M7$422.1M7$377M7
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$3.65B11$724.8M12$1B13$910.3M14$667.3M14
Diluted shares164.9M195.0M202.8M200.1M197.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$217.4
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$24.05
Free cash flow it threw off
$19.07
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $217.4 of net worth that earned you $24.05 and generated $19.07 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
26% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 14%FY23 24%FY24 35%FY25 32%

It earned about 26% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+20% shares · 5y

Share count is up 20% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $21.09 and $30.63 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$28.58
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$377M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$30.63
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$377M
Earnings Power Value
$21.09
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$402.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$34.33
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $30.63
The three cases
Bear0.0%$30.63
Base0.0%$30.63
Bull5.0%$37.23

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001331520-24-000080 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001331520-25-000076 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001331520-26-000051 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001331520-26-000051 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001331520-24-000080 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001331520-25-000076 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001331520-26-000051 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001331520-24-000080 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001331520-25-000076 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001331520-26-000051 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001331520-23-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001331520-24-000080 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001331520-25-000076 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001331520-26-000051 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)