MeritValue

HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC.

HOGdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 22% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $40.32 and $55.55 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.54B1$4.93B2$4.88B3$4.15B3$3.6B3
Net income$650M4$741.4M5$706.6M6$455.4M6$338.7M6
Operating cash flow$975.7M7$548.5M8$754.9M9$1.06B9$568.9M9
Capital expenditure$120.2M10$151.7M11$207.4M12$196.6M12$153.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$855.5M7$396.8M8$547.5M9$867.3M9$415.2M9
Total debt$13B13$13.1B14$13.4B15$13.3B16$5.44B16
Cash & equivalents$1.87B17$1.43B18$1.53B19$1.59B19$3.09B19
Diluted shares155.0M149.4M145.1M132.3M121.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$259.01
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$27.94
Free cash flow it threw off
$34.24
Debt you’d be carrying
$448.33

10 shares is a claim on $259.01 of net worth that earned you $27.94 and generated $34.24 of cash last year, against $448.33 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 5%FY23 5%FY24 3%FY25 6%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−22% shares · 5y

Share count is down 22% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 58% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $40.32 and $55.55 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$40.32
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$547.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$45.18
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$547.5M
Earnings Power Value
$55.55
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$650M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$40.25
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $45.18
The three cases
Bear0.0%$45.18
Base0.0%$45.18
Bull5.0%$60.79

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000793952-24-000076 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000793952-25-000063 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000793952-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000793952-24-000076 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000793952-25-000063 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000793952-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000793952-24-000076 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000793952-25-000063 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000793952-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000793952-24-000076 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000793952-25-000063 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000793952-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000793952-23-000046 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000793952-24-000076 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000793952-25-000063 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000793952-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000793952-24-000076 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000793952-25-000063 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000793952-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)