MeritValue

Hanover Bancorp, Inc. /MD

HNVRdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Hanover Bancorp, Inc. /MD earns about 33% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 56% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $17.62 and $42.88 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$48.7M1$68.4M2$105M3$133M4$130.5M4
Net income$10.9M5$23.6M6$15.2M7$12.3M8$7.49M8
Operating cash flow$13.2M9$25.1M10$16.4M11$5.44M12$13.1M12
Capital expenditure$2.08M13$1.12M14$3.41M15$1.29M16$869,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$11.1M9$24M10$13M11$4.15M12$12.2M12
Total debt$159.6M17$101.8M18$179.8M19$107.8M20$100.7M20
Cash & equivalents$166.5M21$149.9M22$192.6M23$162.9M24$208.9M24
Diluted shares4.7M6.2M7.1M7.2M7.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$275.74
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.31
Free cash flow it threw off
$16.77
Debt you’d be carrying
$138.69

10 shares is a claim on $275.74 of net worth that earned you $10.31 and generated $16.77 of cash last year, against $138.69 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
33% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 23%FY23 31%FY24 37%FY25 58%

It earned about 33% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+56% shares · 5y

Share count is up 56% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 37% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $17.62 and $42.88 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$42.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth3.1%
  • fcfBase$12.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$42.34
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth3.1%
  • fcfBase$12.2M
Earnings Power Value
$17.62
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$12.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$24.91
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years3.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $42.34
The three cases
Bear0.0%$38.86
Base3.1%$42.34
Bull8.1%$48.83

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 3.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001558370-22-018947 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001558370-23-019964 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001558370-25-003018 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027651 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001558370-22-018947 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001558370-23-019964 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001558370-25-003018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027651 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001558370-22-018947 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001558370-23-019964 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001558370-25-003018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027651 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001558370-22-018947 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001558370-23-019964 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001558370-25-003018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027651 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001558370-22-018947 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001558370-23-019964 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001558370-25-003018 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027651 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001558370-22-018947 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001558370-23-019964 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001558370-25-003018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027651 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)