HALLADOR ENERGY CO
HNRGdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on fileHALLADOR ENERGY CO earns about -10% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 42% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.49 and $4.32 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $243.9M1 | $362M2 | $634.9M3 | $404.2M4 | $469.5M4 |
| Net income | −$3.75M5 | $18.1M6 | $44.8M7 | −$226.1M8 | $41.9M8 |
| Operating cash flow | $48M9 | $54.2M10 | $59.4M11 | $65.9M12 | $81.1M12 |
| Capital expenditure | $28.1M13 | $54M14 | $75.4M15 | $53.4M16 | $69.2M16 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $19.9M9 | $149,00010 | −$15.9M11 | $12.6M12 | $11.9M12 |
| Total debt | $215.5M17 | $165.5M18 | $175.8M19 | $83M20 | $59.4M20 |
| Cash & equivalents | $2.55M21 | $3.01M22 | $2.84M23 | $7.23M24 | $10.1M24 |
| Diluted shares | 30.6M | 33.6M | 36.8M | 39.5M | 43.4M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $36.8 of net worth that earned you $9.64 and generated $2.74 of cash last year, against $13.67 of debt.
It earned about -10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 42% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 72% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.49 and $4.32 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$11.9M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$11.9M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$18.1M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $2.79 |
| Base | 0.0% | $2.79 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $3.74 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-22-007411 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007870 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003141 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027174 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006932 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007870 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003141 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027174 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006932 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007870 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003141 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027174 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006932 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007870 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003141 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027174 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006932 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007870 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003141 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027174 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006932 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007870 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003141 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027174 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)