MeritValue

HENNESSY ADVISORS INC

HNNAdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HENNESSY ADVISORS INC earns about 28% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.39 and $25.61 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$32.8M1$29.7M2$24M3$29.6M4$35.5M4
Net income$7.9M5$6.19M6$4.77M7$7.1M8$9.96M8
Operating cash flow$10.4M9$8.67M10$7.13M11$9.28M12$13.8M12
Capital expenditure$249,00013$216,00014$215,00015$313,00016$440,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$10.1M9$8.45M10$6.92M11$8.96M12$13.4M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$15.8M17$58.5M18$60.5M19$63.9M20$72.4M20
Diluted shares7.4M7.6M7.6M7.7M7.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$124.84
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.72
Free cash flow it threw off
$17.05
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $124.84 of net worth that earned you $12.72 and generated $17.05 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
28% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 28%FY23 23%FY24 32%FY25 46%

It earned about 28% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.39 and $25.61 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$24.38
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$8.96M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$25.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$8.96M
Earnings Power Value
$9.39
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$7.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$18.89
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $25.61
The three cases
Bear0.0%$25.61
Base0.0%$25.61
Bull5.0%$29.57

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001193125-22-300163 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001437749-23-033810 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001437749-24-037244 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001437749-25-036795 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001193125-22-300163 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001437749-23-033810 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001437749-24-037244 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001437749-25-036795 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001193125-22-300163 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001437749-23-033810 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001437749-24-037244 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001437749-25-036795 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001193125-22-300163 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001437749-23-033810 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001437749-24-037244 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001437749-25-036795 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001193125-22-300163 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001437749-23-033810 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001437749-24-037244 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001437749-25-036795 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)