MeritValue

HNI CORP

HNIdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HNI CORP earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 11% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.67 and $181.17 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$2.18B1$2.36B2$2.43B3$2.53B3$2.84B3
Net income$59.8M4$123.9M5$49.2M6$139.5M6$54.2M6
Operating cash flow$131.6M7$81.2M8$267.5M9$226.7M9$276.3M9
Capital expenditure$66.5M10$68.4M11$79.1M12$52.9M12$67.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$65.1M7$12.8M8$188.4M9$173.8M9$208.5M9
Total debt$355.6M13$380.2M14$871.6M15$689.2M16$2.59B16
Cash & equivalents$52.3M17$17.4M18$28.9M19$20.2M20$209.2M20
Diluted shares44.0M42.2M45.4M48.5M48.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$375.38
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$11.08
Free cash flow it threw off
$42.64
Debt you’d be carrying
$528.88

10 shares is a claim on $375.38 of net worth that earned you $11.08 and generated $42.64 of cash last year, against $528.88 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY22 7%FY22 13%FY23 3%FY24 9%FY26 1%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+11% shares · 5y

Share count is up 11% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 627% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.67 and $181.17 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$181.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$188.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$77
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$188.4M
Earnings Power Value
$12.67
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$59.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$30.62
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $77
The three cases
Bear0.0%$6.44
Base20.0%$77
Bull20.0%$77

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000048287-24-000080 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000048287-25-000084 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000048287-26-000084 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000048287-24-000080 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000048287-25-000084 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000048287-26-000084 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000048287-24-000080 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000048287-25-000084 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000048287-26-000084 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000048287-24-000080 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000048287-25-000084 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000048287-26-000084 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000048287-23-000053 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000048287-24-000080 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000048287-25-000084 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0000048287-26-000084 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000048287-23-000053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000048287-24-000080 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000048287-25-000084 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0000048287-26-000084 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)