Hinge Health, Inc.
HNGEdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Hinge Health, Inc. earns about -296% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 319% over 3 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $19.41 and $20.73 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $292.7M1 | $390.4M1 | $587.9M1 |
| Net income | −$108.1M2 | −$11.9M2 | −$528.3M2 |
| Operating cash flow | −$63.9M3 | $49M3 | $171.4M3 |
| Capital expenditure | $1.98M4 | $1.04M4 | $708,0004 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$65.9M3 | $48M3 | $170.7M3 |
| Total debt | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $235M5 | $300.8M5 | $208M5 |
| Diluted shares | 13.0M | 13.6M | 54.6M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $32.74 of net worth that earned you −$96.79 and generated $31.28 of cash last year.
It earned about -296% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 319% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $19.41 and $20.73 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$48M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$48M
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $16.37 |
| Base | 5.0% | $19.41 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $23.04 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013808 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013808 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013808 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013808 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013808 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)