MeritValue

HORACE MANN EDUCATORS CORP /DE/

HMNdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

HORACE MANN EDUCATORS CORP /DE/ earns about 7% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $25.61 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.33B1$1.38B2$1.49B3$1.6B3$1.7B3
Net income$170.4M4$19.8M5$45M6$102.8M6$162.1M6
Operating cash flow$204.9M7$171.5M8$302.1M9$452.1M9$553.2M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$502.6M10$498M11$546M12$547M13$593.4M13
Cash & equivalents$133.7M14$42.8M15$29.7M15$38.1M16$27.5M16
Diluted shares42.2M41.8M41.4M41.5M41.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$356.42
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$38.97
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$142.64

10 shares is a claim on $356.42 of net worth that earned you $38.97 last year, against $142.64 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 2%FY23 4%FY24 7%FY25 9%

It earned an average 7% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 18% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$25.61
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$102.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$55.92
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007168 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008838 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000850141-26-000007 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007168 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008838 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000850141-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007168 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008838 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000850141-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005501 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007168 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008838 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000850141-26-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008838 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000850141-26-000007 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000850141-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)