MeritValue

Hillman Solutions Corp.

HLMNdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Hillman Solutions Corp. earns about -2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 48% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.14 and $2.88 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.43B1$1.49B2$1.48B3$1.47B3$1.55B3
Net income−$38.3M4−$16.4M5−$9.59M6$17.3M6$40.3M6
Operating cash flow−$110.3M7$119M8$238M9$183.3M9$105.2M9
Capital expenditure$51.6M10$69.6M11$65.8M12$85.2M12$70.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$161.8M7$49.4M8$172.3M9$98.1M9$35.1M9
Total debt$1.76B13$1.8B14$1.49B15$1.4B16$1.34B16
Cash & equivalents$14.6M17$31.1M18$38.6M19$44.5M20$27.3M20
Diluted shares134.7M194.2M194.7M198.9M199.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$61.59
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.02
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.76
Debt you’d be carrying
$67.28

10 shares is a claim on $61.59 of net worth that earned you $2.02 and generated $1.76 of cash last year, against $67.28 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-2% avg · 5y
FY21 -3%FY22 -2%FY23 -2%FY24 -1%FY25 0%

It earned about -2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+48% shares · 5y

Share count is up 48% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 24% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.14 and $2.88 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$98.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$2.14
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$98.1M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$5.26
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $2.14
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.44
Base5.0%$2.14
Bull10.0%$4.17

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001822492-24-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001822492-25-000050 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001822492-26-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001822492-24-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001822492-25-000050 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001822492-26-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001822492-24-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001822492-25-000050 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001822492-26-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001822492-24-000023 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001822492-25-000050 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001822492-26-000019 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001822492-23-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001822492-24-000023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001822492-25-000050 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001822492-26-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001822492-23-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001822492-24-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001822492-25-000050 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001822492-26-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)