MeritValue

Holley Inc.

HLLYdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Holley Inc. earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 33% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.66 and $15.88 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$692.8M1$688.4M2$659.7M2$602.2M3$613.5M3
Net income−$27.1M4$73.8M5$19.2M5−$23.2M6$19.2M6
Operating cash flow$21.6M7$12.3M8$88.1M8$46.9M9$46.2M9
Capital expenditure$15.2M10$13.6M11$5.93M11$6.8M12$12.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$6.35M7−$1.28M8$82.2M8$40.1M9$33.9M9
Total debt$1.3B13$1.3B14$1.17B15$1.11B16$522.6M16
Cash & equivalents$36.3M17$26.2M18$41.1M19$56.1M20$37.2M20
Diluted shares90.0M117.2M118.5M118.4M120.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$37.4
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.6
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.82
Debt you’d be carrying
$43.54

10 shares is a claim on $37.4 of net worth that earned you $1.6 and generated $2.82 of cash last year, against $43.54 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 7%FY23 4%FY24 -1%FY25 2%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+33% shares · 5y

Share count is up 33% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 60% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.66 and $15.88 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$15.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$40.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$6.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$40.1M
Earnings Power Value
$1.66
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$19.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$3.67
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $6.85
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.73
Base20.0%$6.85
Bull20.0%$6.85

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007848 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007614 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018218 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007848 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007614 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018218 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007848 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007614 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018218 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007848 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007614 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018218 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006585 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007848 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007614 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018218 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006585 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007848 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007614 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018218 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)