MeritValue

HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES, INC.

HLIOdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.06 and $31.59 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$869.2M1$885.4M2$835.6M3$805.9M3$839M3
Net income$104.6M4$98.4M5$37.5M6$39M6$48.4M6
Operating cash flow$113.1M7$109.9M8$83.9M9$122.1M9$127.3M9
Capital expenditure$26.8M10$31.9M11$34.3M12$27M12$23.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$86.3M7$78M8$49.6M9$95.1M9$103.6M9
Total debt$647.5M13$629.7M14$846.9M15$749.8M16$629.6M16
Cash & equivalents$28.5M17$43.7M18$32.4M19$44.1M20$73M20
Diluted shares32.5M32.6M33.0M33.3M33.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$279.73
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$14.53
Free cash flow it threw off
$31.11
Debt you’d be carrying
$189.07

10 shares is a claim on $279.73 of net worth that earned you $14.53 and generated $31.11 of cash last year, against $189.07 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY22 8%FY22 7%FY23 2%FY24 2%FY26 3%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.06 and $31.59 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$31.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth3.3%
  • fcfBase$95.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$30.38
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth3.3%
  • fcfBase$95.1M
Earnings Power Value
$15.06
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$48.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$30.21
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years3.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $30.38
The three cases
Bear0.0%$24.09
Base3.3%$30.38
Bull8.3%$41.51

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 3.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-24-021107 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026703 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-087747 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-24-021107 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026703 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-087747 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-24-021107 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026703 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-087747 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-24-021107 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026703 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-087747 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-23-005179 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021107 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000950170-25-026703 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001193125-26-087747 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-23-005179 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021107 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000950170-25-026703 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001193125-26-087747 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)