MeritValue

HERBALIFE LTD.

HLFdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HERBALIFE LTD. earns about 12% on invested capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $25.44 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.8B1$5.2B2$5.06B3$4.99B3$5.04B3
Net income$447.2M4$321.3M5$142.2M6$254.3M6$228.3M6
Operating cash flow$460.3M7$352.5M8$357.5M9$285.4M9$333.3M9
Capital expenditure$151.4M10$156.4M11$135M12$122M12$80.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$308.9M7$196.1M8$222.5M9$163.4M9$252.9M9
Total debt$5.53B13$5.38B14$5.12B15$4.52B16$3.99B16
Cash & equivalents$601.5M17$508M18$575.2M19$415.3M20$353.1M20
Diluted shares108.3M99.5M100.2M101.6M103.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$49.72
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$22.04
Free cash flow it threw off
$24.41
Debt you’d be carrying
$384.67

10 shares is a claim on −$49.72 of net worth that earned you $22.04 and generated $24.41 of cash last year, against $384.67 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 12%FY23 7%FY24 12%FY25 13%

It earned an average 12% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 28% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$222.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$222.5M
Earnings Power Value
$25.44
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$254.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015266 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023207 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057113 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015266 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023207 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057113 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015266 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023207 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057113 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015266 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023207 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057113 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-002787 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015266 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023207 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057113 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-002787 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015266 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023207 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057113 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)