Cellyan Biotechnology Co., Ltd
HKPDdata completeness 100%3 fiscal years on fileCellyan Biotechnology Co., Ltd earns about 67% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 61% over 3 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.7 and $0.94 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.6M1 | $16.7M1 | $20.3M1 |
| Net income | $998,1962 | $1.33M2 | −$27,0562 |
| Operating cash flow | $1.73M3 | −$394,3303 | $569,2143 |
| Capital expenditure | $114,6434 | $52,7364 | $69,9164 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $1.61M3 | −$447,0663 | $499,2983 |
| Total debt | — | $1.3M5 | $1.88M5 |
| Cash & equivalents | — | $619,5756 | $748,7216 |
| Diluted shares | 6.8M | 7.4M | 11.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $4.54 of net worth that earned you −$0.02 and generated $0.45 of cash last year, against $1.7 of debt.
It earned about 67% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 61% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 44% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.7 and $0.94 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$499,298
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$499,298
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$998,196
- growthAssumed0.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $0.55 |
| Base | 5.0% | $0.7 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $0.89 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-076725 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-076725 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-076725 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-076725 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-076725 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-076725 (CashAndCashEquivalents)