MeritValue

Horizon Kinetics Holding Corp

HKHCdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Horizon Kinetics Holding Corp earns about 50% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 47% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.34 and $11.02 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$29.7M1$2.98M2$47.3M3$55.8M4$72.8M4
Net income−$11.1M5−$8.85M6−$4.49M7$92.5M8$5.12M8
Operating cash flow−$322,0009−$1.85M10$25.5M11$11.8M12−$43.1M12
Capital expenditure——$95,00013$47,00014$315,00014
Free cash flow (derived)——$25.4M11$11.8M12−$43.4M12
Total debt$6.09M15$6.89M16———
Cash & equivalents$1.27M17—$10.5M18$14.4M19$36.9M19
Diluted shares12.7M12.8M18.0M18.3M18.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$181.89
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.75
Free cash flow it threw off
−$23.28
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $181.89 of net worth that earned you $2.75 and generated −$23.28 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
50% avg · 5y
FY21 -32%FY22 -3%FY23 45%FY24 244%FY25 -4%

It earned about 50% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+47% shares · 5y

Share count is up 47% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 13% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.34 and $11.02 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$10.34
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$11.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$11.02
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$11.8M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$10.51
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $11.02
The three cases
Bear0.0%$11.02
Base0.0%$11.02
Bull5.0%$13.21

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010594 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-036394 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047560 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104113 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010594 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-036394 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047560 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104113 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010594 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-036394 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047560 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104113 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047560 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104113 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010594 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-036394 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-22-012994 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047560 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104113 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)