AMTD Digital Inc.
HKDdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on fileAMTD Digital Inc. earns about 11% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 67% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.25 and $3.42 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $25.3M1 | $33.1M2 | $12M3 | $22.8M2 | $50.1M2 |
| Net income | $25.8M4 | $40.8M5 | −$2.68M6 | $41.7M5 | $97M5 |
| Operating cash flow | $10.3M7 | $15.5M8 | — | $4.25M8 | $14.4M8 |
| Capital expenditure | $6,0009 | $2,00010 | — | $159,00010 | $60,00010 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $10.2M7 | $15.5M8 | — | $4.09M8 | $14.3M8 |
| Total debt | — | $116.6M11 | $131.1M12 | $515.2M13 | $520.2M13 |
| Cash & equivalents | $14.3M14 | $152.9M15 | $134.8M15 | $60.9M15 | $46.4M15 |
| Diluted shares | 74.2M | 74.2M | — | 76.8M | 123.8M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $21.3 of net worth that earned you $7.84 and generated $1.16 of cash last year, against $42.03 of debt.
It earned an average 11% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 67% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 346% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.25 and $3.42 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth15.9%
- fcfBase$14.3M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth15.9%
- fcfBase$14.3M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$40.8M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
- 20-F · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001213900-25-018782 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001213900-26-021555 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001213900-25-018782 (Revenues)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001213900-25-018782 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001213900-26-021555 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001213900-25-018782 (ProfitLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001213900-25-018782 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001213900-26-021555 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001213900-25-018782 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001213900-26-021555 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F/A · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001213900-25-014872 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001213900-25-018782 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-10-31 · accession 0001213900-26-021555 (LongTermDebt)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001213900-25-018782 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001213900-26-021555 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)