MeritValue

Hippo Holdings Inc.

HIPOdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Hippo Holdings Inc. earns about -97% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 139% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.6 and $15.13 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$91.2M1$119.7M2$209.7M3$372.1M3$468.6M3
Net income−$371.4M4−$333.4M5−$273.1M6−$40.5M6$57.7M6
Operating cash flow−$124.5M7−$161.5M8−$92.4M9$47.5M9$9.2M9
Capital expenditure$800,00010$4.9M11$29.6M12$300,00012$100,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$125.3M7−$166.4M8−$122M9$47.2M9$9.1M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$775.6M13$194.5M14$142.1M15$197.6M16$218.3M16
Diluted shares10.9M22.7M23.6M24.7M26.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$167.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$22.18
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.5
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $167.66 of net worth that earned you $22.18 and generated $3.5 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-97% avg · 5y
FY21 -345%FY22 -65%FY23 -88%FY24 -13%FY25 29%

It earned about -97% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+139% shares · 5y

Share count is up 139% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.6 and $15.13 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$15.13
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$9.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$14.6
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$9.1M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$28.94
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $14.6
The three cases
Bear0.0%$13.39
Base5.0%$14.6
Bull10.0%$16.05

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001828105-23-000011 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001828105-25-000013 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001828105-26-000008 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001828105-23-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001828105-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001828105-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001828105-23-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001828105-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001828105-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001828105-23-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001828105-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001828105-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001828105-23-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001828105-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001828105-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001828105-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)