Hims & Hers Health, Inc.

HIMSdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Hims & Hers Health, Inc. earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 38% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.13 and $14.14 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$271.9M1$526.9M2$872M3$1.48B3$2.35B3
Net income−$107.7M4−$65.7M5−$23.5M6$126M6$128.4M6
Operating cash flow−$34.4M7−$26.5M8$73.5M9$251.1M9$300M9
Capital expenditure$7.2M10$26.5M11$52.8M11$242.6M11
Free cash flow (derived)−$33.7M8$47M9$198.3M9$57.4M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$71.8M12$46.8M13$96.7M14$220.6M14$228.6M14
Diluted shares186.8M204.5M209.3M236.8M258.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$20.95
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.97
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.22
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $20.95 of net worth that earned you $4.97 and generated $2.22 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 -33%FY22 -20%FY23 -7%FY24 28%FY25 40%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+38% shares · 5y

Share count is up 38% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.13 and $14.14 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$14.14
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$57.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$8.13
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$57.4M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$4.9
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $8.13
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.06
Base20.0%$8.13
Bull20.0%$8.13

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001773751-24-000025 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001773751-25-000062 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001773751-26-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001773751-24-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001773751-25-000062 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001773751-26-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001773751-24-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001773751-25-000062 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001773751-26-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001773751-25-000062 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001773751-26-000022 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001773751-24-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001773751-25-000062 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001773751-26-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)