HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES, INC.

HIIdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES, INC. earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $152.67 and $586.29 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$9.52B1$10.7B2$11.5B3$11.5B3$12.5B3
Net income$544M4$579M5$681M6$550M6$605M6
Operating cash flow$760M7$766M8$970M9$393M9$1.2B9
Capital expenditure$331M10$284M11$292M12$367M12$402M12
Free cash flow (derived)$429M7$482M8$678M9$26M9$794M9
Total debt$6.6B13$5.81B14$2.45B14
Cash & equivalents$627M15$467M16$430M16$831M16$774M16
Diluted shares40.3M40.1M39.9M39.4M39.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,290.84
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$153.94
Free cash flow it threw off
$202.04
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $1,290.84 of net worth that earned you $153.94 and generated $202.04 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 7%FY23 12%FY24 16%FY25 16%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 63% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $152.67 and $586.29 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$586.29
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth12.0%
  • fcfBase$678M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$430.21
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth12.0%
  • fcfBase$678M
Earnings Power Value
$152.67
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$579M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$211.42
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years12.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $430.21
The three cases
Bear0.0%$266.19
Base12.0%$430.21
Bull17.0%$521.05

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 12.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001501585-24-000007 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001501585-25-000006 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001501585-26-000006 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001501585-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001501585-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001501585-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001501585-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001501585-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001501585-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001501585-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001501585-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001501585-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001501585-23-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001501585-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001501585-22-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001501585-26-000006 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)