MeritValue

HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP, INC.

HIGdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP, INC. earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 19% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $90.57 and $763.55 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.57B1$1.42B2$1.38B3$1.46B3$1.51B3
Net income$2.37B4$1.82B5$2.5B6$3.11B6$3.84B6
Operating cash flow$4.09B7$4.01B8$4.22B9$5.91B9$5.92B9
Capital expenditure$133M10$175M11$215M12$145M12$169M12
Free cash flow (derived)$3.96B7$3.83B8$4.01B9$5.76B9$5.75B9
Total debt$9.89B13$8.71B14$8.72B15$8.73B16$8.74B16
Cash & equivalents$337M17$344M18$189M18$234M18$177M18
Diluted shares354.1M329.5M311.5M298.6M286.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$662.44
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$133.89
Free cash flow it threw off
$200.8
Debt you’d be carrying
$305.13

10 shares is a claim on $662.44 of net worth that earned you $133.89 and generated $200.8 of cash last year, against $305.13 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 9%FY23 11%FY24 13%FY25 15%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−19% shares · 5y

Share count is down 19% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 12% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $90.57 and $763.55 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$763.55
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth14.5%
  • fcfBase$5.75B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$497.52
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth14.5%
  • fcfBase$5.75B
Earnings Power Value
$90.57
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.5B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$140.9
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years14.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $497.52
The three cases
Bear0.0%$257.01
Base14.5%$497.52
Bull19.5%$612.14

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 14.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000874766-24-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000874766-25-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000874766-26-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000874766-24-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000874766-25-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000874766-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000874766-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000874766-25-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000874766-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000874766-24-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000874766-25-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000874766-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000874766-23-000023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000874766-24-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000874766-25-000023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000874766-26-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000874766-25-000023 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000874766-26-000012 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)