MeritValue

Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.

HHHdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $22.91 and $54.78 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.43B1$1.49B2$908.8M3$1.75B3$1.47B3
Net income$48.9M4$184.5M5−$551.8M6$197.7M6$123.9M6
Operating cash flow−$284M7$325.3M8−$258.5M9$396.6M9$462.4M9
Capital expenditure$35.9M10$43.2M11$40.2M12$47.9M12$44.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$319.9M7$282.1M8−$298.7M9$348.6M9$417.6M9
Total debt——$5.3B13$5.13B14$5.11B15
Cash & equivalents$843.2M16$610.2M17$629.7M18$596.1M18$1.47B18
Diluted shares54.6M50.6M49.6M49.9M56.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$673.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$22.11
Free cash flow it threw off
$74.51
Debt you’d be carrying
$911.72

10 shares is a claim on $673.64 of net worth that earned you $22.11 and generated $74.51 of cash last year, against $911.72 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 11%FY23 3%FY24 4%FY25 2%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $22.91 and $54.78 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$54.78
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$348.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$45.42
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$348.6M
Earnings Power Value
$22.91
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$123.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$57.88
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $45.42
The three cases
Bear0.0%$23.91
Base5.0%$45.42
Bull10.0%$71.16

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007207 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008128 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009710 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007207 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008128 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009710 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007207 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008128 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009710 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007207 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008128 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009710 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007207 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008128 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009710 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007207 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008128 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009710 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)