MeritValue

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.

HGVdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $19.93 and $126.98 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.34B1$3.54B2$3.59B3$4.47B3$4.51B3
Net income$176M4$352M5$313M6$47M6$81M6
Operating cash flow$168M7$747M8$312M9$309M9$300M9
Capital expenditure$18M10$58M11$31M12$42M12$70M12
Free cash flow (derived)$150M7$689M8$281M9$267M9$230M9
Total debt$2.91B13$2.65B14$3.05B15$4.6B16$4.55B16
Cash & equivalents$432M17$223M18$589M19$328M19$239M19
Diluted shares101.1M119.6M111.6M103.1M91.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$140.87
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$8.85
Free cash flow it threw off
$25.14
Debt you’d be carrying
$496.72

10 shares is a claim on $140.87 of net worth that earned you $8.85 and generated $25.14 of cash last year, against $496.72 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 10%FY23 10%FY24 1%FY25 2%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 56% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $19.93 and $126.98 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$126.98
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$267M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$48.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$267M
Earnings Power Value
$19.93
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$176M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$16.8
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $48.08
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$5.37
Base20.0%$48.08
Bull20.0%$48.08

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007940 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009254 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001674168-26-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007940 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009254 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001674168-26-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007940 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009254 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001674168-26-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007940 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009254 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001674168-26-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005817 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007940 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009254 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001674168-26-000017 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007940 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009254 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001674168-26-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)