MeritValue

Hagerty, Inc.

HGTYdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Hagerty, Inc. earns about 20% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 319% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$323.3M1$383.7M2$464.3M3$548.6M3$677.6M3
Net income−$46.4M4$32.1M4$28.2M5$78.3M5$149.2M5
Operating cash flow$42.3M6$55.3M7$133.7M8$177M8$219M8
Capital expenditure$43.4M9$44.4M10$26.4M11$21.3M11$24.5M11
Free cash flow (derived)−$1.09M6$11M7$107.3M8$155.7M8$194.5M8
Total debt$273M12$216.6M13$265M14$212.3M15$355.8M15
Cash & equivalents$275.3M16$95.2M17$108.3M18$104.8M18$160.2M18
Diluted shares82.3M339.0M340.1M345.2M—

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 3%FY23 11%FY24 30%FY25 33%

It earned an average 20% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+319% shares · 5y

Share count is up 319% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 30% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
no diluted share count — cannot compute per-share value
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
no diluted share count — cannot compute per-share value
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
no diluted share count
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001840776-24-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001840776-25-000033 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001840776-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001840776-23-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001840776-26-000013 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001840776-24-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001840776-25-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001840776-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001840776-24-000022 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001840776-25-000033 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001840776-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001840776-23-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001840776-24-000022 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001840776-25-000033 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001840776-26-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001840776-23-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001840776-25-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001840776-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)