MeritValue

HINES GLOBAL INCOME TRUST, INC.

HGITdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HINES GLOBAL INCOME TRUST, INC. earns about 1% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 122% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.08M1$7.69M2$10.3M3$12.5M3$15.7M3
Net income−$39.2M4−$48.1M5−$38.6M6−$47.2M6$17.3M6
Operating cash flow$46.1M7$11.4M8$31.2M9$54M9$54.7M9
Capital expenditure$17.1M10$36.2M11$22.6M12$71.8M12$76.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$28.9M7−$24.7M8$8.56M9−$17.8M9−$21.8M9
Total debt$1.24B13$1.3B14$1.38B15$1.62B16$2.37B16
Cash & equivalents$196.6M17$112.1M18$105.6M19$132.4M20$172.1M20
Diluted shares127.7M211.2M259.2M263.1M283.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$69.8
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.61
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.77
Debt you’d be carrying
$83.67

10 shares is a claim on $69.8 of net worth that earned you $0.61 and generated −$0.77 of cash last year, against $83.67 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 -0%FY22 -0%FY23 1%FY24 2%FY25 5%

It earned an average 1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+122% shares · 5y

Share count is up 122% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 91% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$3.07
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001585101-24-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001585101-25-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022047 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001585101-24-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001585101-25-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022047 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001585101-24-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001585101-25-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022047 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001585101-24-000018 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001585101-25-000017 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022047 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001585101-23-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001585101-24-000018 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001585101-25-000017 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022047 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001585101-23-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001585101-24-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001585101-25-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)