MeritValue

Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.

HGdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. earns about 27% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $27.97 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.33B1$1.23B2$1.57B3$2.33B3$2.91B3
Net income$249.8M4−$29.9M5$280.3M6$613.2M6$840M6
Operating cash flow$226.5M7$190.9M8$283.2M9$759.3M9$842.4M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—$149.7M10$149.8M11$149.9M12$149.7M12
Cash & equivalents$954.9M13$1.08B14$794.5M15$996.5M16$1.06B16
Diluted shares103.5M103.1M106.2M109.1M103.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$271.76
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$80.89
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$14.42

10 shares is a claim on $271.76 of net worth that earned you $80.89 last year, against $14.42 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
27% avg · 5y
FY21 32%FY22 -1%FY23 20%FY24 43%FY25 44%

It earned an average 27% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$27.97
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$280.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$58.25
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0001593275-24-000028 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001593275-25-000023 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001593275-26-000021 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0001593275-24-000028 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001593275-25-000023 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001593275-26-000021 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0001593275-24-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001593275-25-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001593275-26-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001593275-24-000028 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001593275-25-000023 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001593275-26-000021 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0001593275-24-000028 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001593275-24-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001593275-25-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001593275-26-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)