MeritValue

HF Foods Group Inc.

HFFGdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HF Foods Group Inc. earns about -2% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$796.9M1$1.17B2$1.15B2$1.2B3$1.23B3
Net income$22.1M4$460,0005−$2.17M5−$48.5M6−$38.8M6
Operating cash flow$17.5M7$35.4M8−$1.65M8$22.6M9$25.5M9
Capital expenditure$2.21M10$6.29M11$3.51M11$12.5M12$18.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$15.3M7$29.1M8−$5.16M8$10.1M9$6.56M9
Total debt$174.7M13$243.4M14$228.3M15$217.5M16$212.2M16
Cash & equivalents$14.8M17$24.3M17$15.2M18$14.5M18$8.64M18
Diluted shares52.1M53.9M53.9M52.6M52.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$38.16
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$7.34
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.24
Debt you’d be carrying
$40.09

10 shares is a claim on $38.16 of net worth that earned you −$7.34 and generated $1.24 of cash last year, against $40.09 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-2% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 1%FY23 1%FY24 -8%FY25 -9%

It earned an average -2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 21% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$6.56M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$6.56M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001680873-24-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001680873-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001680873-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001680873-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001680873-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001680873-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001680873-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001680873-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001680873-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001680873-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001680873-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001680873-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001680873-23-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001680873-24-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001680873-25-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001680873-26-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001680873-25-000006 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001680873-26-000015 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)