MeritValue

HEICO CORP

HEIdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HEICO CORP earns about 17% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $29.71 and $175.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.87B1$2.21B2$2.97B3$3.86B3$4.49B3
Net income$304.2M4$351.7M5$403.6M6$514.1M6$690.4M6
Operating cash flow$444.1M7$467.9M8$448.7M9$672.4M9$934.3M9
Capital expenditure$36.2M10$32M11$49.4M12$58.3M12$72.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$407.9M7$435.9M8$399.3M9$614.1M9$861.4M9
Total debt—$1.65M13$4.27M14$4.11M15$3.36M15
Cash & equivalents$108.3M16$139.5M16$171M17$162.1M17$217.8M17
Diluted shares137.9M138.0M138.9M140.2M140.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$305.84
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$49.04
Free cash flow it threw off
$61.19
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.24

10 shares is a claim on $305.84 of net worth that earned you $49.04 and generated $61.19 of cash last year, against $0.24 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
17% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 16%FY23 15%FY24 20%FY25 21%

It earned about 17% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 103% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $29.71 and $175.43 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$175.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth14.6%
  • fcfBase$614.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$116.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth14.6%
  • fcfBase$614.1M
Earnings Power Value
$29.71
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$403.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$58.07
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years14.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $116.64
The three cases
Bear0.0%$63.85
Base14.6%$116.64
Bull19.6%$141.64

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 14.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0000046619-23-000163 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0000046619-24-000111 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0000046619-25-000082 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0000046619-23-000163 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0000046619-24-000111 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0000046619-25-000082 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0000046619-23-000163 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0000046619-24-000111 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0000046619-25-000082 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0000046619-23-000163 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0000046619-24-000111 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0000046619-25-000082 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0000046619-23-000163 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0000046619-24-000111 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-10-31 · accession 0000046619-25-000082 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0000046619-22-000066 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0000046619-25-000082 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)