MeritValue

HAWAIIAN ELECTRIC INDUSTRIES INC

HEdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HAWAIIAN ELECTRIC INDUSTRIES INC earns about -3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 58% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.46 and $26.46 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.52B1$3.47B2$3.25B3$3.18B3$3.08B3
Net income$248.1M4$243M5$201.1M6−$1.42B6$126.3M6
Operating cash flow$375.7M7$454.5M8$551.5M9$487.5M9$391.1M9
Capital expenditure$314.5M10$339.3M11$442.7M12$344.3M12$341.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$61.1M7$115.1M8$108.7M9$143.2M9$49.9M9
Total debt$2.32B13$2.38B14$2.84B15$2.85B16$2.41B16
Cash & equivalents$305.6M17$43.7M18$244.1M19$750.5M19$501.8M19
Diluted shares109.6M109.8M110.0M126.9M173.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$92.82
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$7.3
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.88
Debt you’d be carrying
$139.29

10 shares is a claim on $92.82 of net worth that earned you $7.3 and generated $2.88 of cash last year, against $139.29 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-3% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 6%FY23 6%FY24 -40%FY25 4%

It earned about -3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+58% shares · 5y

Share count is up 58% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.46 and $26.46 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$26.46
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$108.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$9.46
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$108.7M
Earnings Power Value
$12.05
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$201.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$12.18
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $9.46
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$2.05
Base20.0%$9.46
Bull20.0%$9.46

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000354707-23-000032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000354707-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000354707-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000354707-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000354707-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000354707-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000354707-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000354707-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000354707-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000354707-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000354707-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000354707-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000354707-23-000032 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000354707-24-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000354707-25-000013 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000354707-26-000008 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000354707-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000354707-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000354707-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)