MeritValue

HUDSON TECHNOLOGIES INC /NY

HDSNdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HUDSON TECHNOLOGIES INC /NY earns about 25% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.41 and $73.55 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$192.7M1$325.2M2$289M3$237.1M3$246.6M3
Net income$32.3M4$103.8M5$52.2M6$24.4M6$16.7M6
Operating cash flow−$1.23M7$62.8M8$58.5M9$91.8M9−$3.16M9
Capital expenditure$1.92M10$3.66M11$3.58M12$5.3M12$5.05M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$3.15M7$59.2M8$55M9$86.5M9−$8.21M9
Total debt$113.6M13$47.5M14———
Cash & equivalents$3.49M15$5.3M16$12.4M17$70.1M18$39.5M18
Diluted shares46.6M47.1M47.3M47.1M45.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$53.95
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.69
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.82
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $53.95 of net worth that earned you $3.69 and generated −$1.82 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
25% avg · 5y
FY21 24%FY22 54%FY23 27%FY24 14%FY25 8%

It earned about 25% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 58% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.41 and $73.55 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$73.55
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$55M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$40.6
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$55M
Earnings Power Value
$7.41
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$32.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$6.7
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $40.6
The three cases
Bear0.0%$18.28
Base20.0%$40.6
Bull20.0%$40.6

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000199 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000323 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028445 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000199 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000323 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028445 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000199 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000323 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028445 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000199 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000323 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028445 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000263 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000199 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000263 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000199 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000323 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028445 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)