SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.

HDLdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD. earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 17% over 3 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.35 and $2.8 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$558.2M1$686.4M1$778.3M1
Net income−$41.2M2$25.7M2$21.8M2
Operating cash flow$68.3M3$114M3$119.7M3
Capital expenditure$60.5M4$32.8M4$34.7M4
Free cash flow (derived)$7.85M3$81.2M3$85M3
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$93.9M5$152.9M5$254.7M5
Diluted shares557.4M557.4M650.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$5.54
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.34
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.31
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $5.54 of net worth that earned you $0.34 and generated $1.31 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 3y
FY22 -17%FY23 22%FY24 20%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+17% shares · 3y

Share count is up 17% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.35 and $2.8 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$81.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$2.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$81.2M
Earnings Power Value
$0.35
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$21.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$0.71
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $2.61
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.18
Base5.0%$2.61
Bull10.0%$3.13

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000859 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000859 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000859 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000859 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000859 (CashAndCashEquivalents)