HDFC BANK LTD
HDBdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on fileHDFC BANK LTD earns about 21% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 39% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.16 and $62.85 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.7B1 | $11.8B2 | $13.8B3 | $22.2B4 | $25.6B5 |
| Net income | $4.46B6 | $5.09B7 | $6.03B8 | $7.47B9 | $7.88B10 |
| Operating cash flow | $12.6B11 | $7.66B12 | $5.81B13 | $12.3B14 | $14B15 |
| Capital expenditure | $243.5M16 | $347M17 | $530.7M18 | $646M19 | $777.2M20 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $12.4B11 | $7.31B12 | $5.28B13 | $11.6B14 | $13.2B15 |
| Total debt | $19.3B21 | $27.8B22 | $38.3B23 | $95.5B24 | $84B25 |
| Cash & equivalents | $12.3B26 | $13.7B27 | $16.6B28 | $24.4B29 | $23.2B29 |
| Diluted shares | 5.52B | 5.56B | 5.59B | 7.11B | 7.66B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $117.32 of net worth that earned you $10.29 and generated $17.26 of cash last year, against $109.61 of debt.
It earned about 21% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 39% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 334% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.16 and $62.85 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth16.7%
- fcfBase$11.6B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth16.7%
- fcfBase$11.6B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$6.03B
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $13.75 |
| Base | 16.7% | $35.58 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $41.54 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 16.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
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- 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001193125-22-206623 (Revenues)
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- 20-F · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001193125-21-226470 (LongTermDebt)
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- 20-F · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001193125-25-158722 (LongTermDebt)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001193125-22-206623 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
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