MeritValue

HOME DEPOT, INC.

HDdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HOME DEPOT, INC. earns about 38% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $157.71 and $268.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$151.2B1$157.4B2$152.7B3$159.5B3$164.7B3
Net income$16.4B4$17.1B5$15.1B6$14.8B6$14.2B6
Operating cash flow$16.6B7$14.6B8$21.2B9$19.8B9$16.3B9
Capital expenditure$2.57B10$3.12B11$3.23B12$3.49B12$3.68B12
Free cash flow (derived)$14B7$11.5B8$17.9B9$16.3B9$12.6B9
Total debt$37.4B13$41.2B14$42.2B15$51.7B16$53.9B17
Cash & equivalents$2.34B18$2.76B19$3.76B20$1.66B21$1.39B21
Diluted shares1.06B1.02B1.00B993.0M995.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$128.77
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$142.27
Free cash flow it threw off
$127.1
Debt you’d be carrying
$541.32

10 shares is a claim on $128.77 of net worth that earned you $142.27 and generated $127.1 of cash last year, against $541.32 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
38% avg · 5y
FY22 52%FY23 46%FY24 42%FY25 26%FY26 22%

It earned about 38% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 44% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $157.71 and $268.96 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$268.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.2%
  • fcfBase$16.3B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$241.44
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.2%
  • fcfBase$16.3B
Earnings Power Value
$157.71
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$15.1B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$64.21
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $241.44
The three cases
Bear0.0%$181.68
Base5.2%$241.44
Bull10.2%$309.92

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0000354950-24-000062 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0000354950-25-000085 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0001628280-26-019436 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0000354950-24-000062 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0000354950-25-000085 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0001628280-26-019436 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0000354950-24-000062 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0000354950-25-000085 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0001628280-26-019436 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0000354950-24-000062 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0000354950-25-000085 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0001628280-26-019436 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0000354950-22-000070 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0000354950-23-000059 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0000354950-24-000062 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-02 · accession 0000354950-25-000085 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2026-02-01 · accession 0001628280-26-019436 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0000354950-23-000059 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0000354950-24-000062 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0000354950-25-000085 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-02 · accession 0001628280-26-019436 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)