MeritValue

HCW Biologics Inc.

HCWBdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HCW Biologics Inc. earns about -254% on invested capital, and has bought back 89% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$01$6.72M2$2.84M3$2.57M4$54,2324
Net income−$12.9M5−$14.9M6−$25M7−$30M8−$7.96M8
Operating cash flow−$11M9−$10.4M10−$22.5M11−$14.2M12−$13.4M12
Capital expenditure$47,26313$10.3M14$6.2M15$261,61716$016
Free cash flow (derived)−$11M9−$20.7M10−$28.7M11−$14.5M12−$13.4M12
Total debt$017$44.7M18$6.42M19$13.7M20$6.81M20
Cash & equivalents$11.7M21$22.3M22$3.6M23$4.67M24$1.95M24
Diluted shares18.8M35.8M35.9M969,8252.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$13.18
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$37.94
Free cash flow it threw off
−$63.84
Debt you’d be carrying
$32.46

10 shares is a claim on $13.18 of net worth that earned you −$37.94 and generated −$63.84 of cash last year, against $32.46 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-254% avg · 5y
FY21 -26%FY22 -20%FY23 -120%FY24 -1032%FY25 -74%

It earned an average -254% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−89% shares · 5y

Share count is down 89% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010315 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-060543 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046724 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-134934 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010315 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-060543 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046724 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-134934 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010315 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-060543 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046724 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-134934 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010315 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-060543 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046724 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-134934 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010315 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010315 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  19. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-060543 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-134934 (LongTermDebt)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010315 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-060543 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046724 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-134934 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)