MeritValue

HUTCHMED (China) Ltd

HCMdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HUTCHMED (China) Ltd earns about -17% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 10% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.45 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$356.1M1$426.4M2$838M3$630.2M3$548.5M3
Net income−$194.6M4−$360.8M5$100.8M6$37.7M6$456.9M6
Operating cash flow−$204.2M7−$268.6M8$219.3M9$497,0009−$64.7M9
Capital expenditure$16.4M10$36.7M11$32.6M12$17.9M12$14.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$220.6M7−$305.3M8$186.6M9−$17.4M9−$78.8M9
Total debt$26.9M13$36.2M14$189.8M15$189M16$211.3M16
Cash & equivalents$377.5M17$313.3M18$283.6M19$154M20$71.3M20
Diluted shares792.7M847.1M869.2M872.8M872.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$14.18
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.23
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.9
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.42

10 shares is a claim on $14.18 of net worth that earned you $5.23 and generated −$0.9 of cash last year, against $2.42 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-17% avg · 5y
FY21 -27%FY22 -97%FY23 9%FY24 -0%FY25 32%

It earned an average -17% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+10% shares · 5y

Share count is up 10% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 685% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$0.45
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$37.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$4.07
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-028454 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000377 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-023822 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-028454 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000377 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-023822 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-028454 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000377 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-023822 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-028454 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000377 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-023822 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-026282 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-028454 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000377 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-023822 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-026282 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-028454 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000377 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-023822 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)