MeritValue

Hongchang International Co., Ltd

HCILdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Hongchang International Co., Ltd earns about -1% on equity, and has bought back 50% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$222,7011$96,4782$78,9532$2.68M3$2.87M3
Net income−$548,3964−$163,0205−$239,9896−$378,7946−$472,3937
Operating cash flow−$21,8498−$141,1449−$225,77410$750,52111−$7.34M11
Capital expenditure———$40.6M12$4.02M12
Free cash flow (derived)———−$39.8M11−$11.4M11
Total debt————$13M13
Cash & equivalents$5,48914$4,32315$3,14116$895,73016$240,59817
Diluted shares1.03B1.03B61.7M450.2M518.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$0.75
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.01
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.22
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.25

10 shares is a claim on $0.75 of net worth that earned you −$0.01 and generated −$0.22 of cash last year, against $0.25 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-1% avg · 5y
FY20 —FY21 —FY22 —FY23 -1%FY24 -1%

It earned an average -1% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−50% shares · 5y

Share count is down 50% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-019955 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-051054 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-004096 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-019955 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-051054 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028792 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-004096 (ProfitLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-019955 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-051054 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028792 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-004096 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-004096 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-004096 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-051054 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  15. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-051054 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028792 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-004096 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)