MeritValue

HCI Group, Inc.

HCIdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HCI Group, Inc. earns about 8% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 50% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $63.6 and $1,611.93 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$407.9M1$499.6M2$550.7M3$750.1M3$900.9M3
Net income$1.86M4−$58.5M5$79M6$110M6$299M6
Operating cash flow$96.5M7−$12,0008$230.7M9$331.8M9$444.4M9
Capital expenditure$3.32M10$6.34M11$6.5M12$4.05M12$3.63M12
Free cash flow (derived)$93.2M7−$6.35M8$224.2M9$327.8M9$440.8M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$628.9M13$234.9M14$536.5M15$532.5M16$1.21B16
Diluted shares8.6M8.8M11.0M12.7M12.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$808.42
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$232.18
Free cash flow it threw off
$342.3
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $808.42 of net worth that earned you $232.18 and generated $342.3 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
8% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 -36%FY23 24%FY24 24%FY25 29%

It earned about 8% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+50% shares · 5y

Share count is up 50% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $63.6 and $1,611.93 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1,611.93
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$327.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$923.78
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$327.8M
Earnings Power Value
$63.6
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$79M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$203.29
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $923.78
The three cases
Bear0.0%$457.61
Base20.0%$923.78
Bull20.0%$923.78

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028620 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029999 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076743 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028620 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029999 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076743 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028620 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029999 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076743 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028620 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029999 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076743 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007271 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028620 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029999 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076743 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)