WARRIOR MET COAL, INC.
HCCdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'
WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. earns about 23% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $49.37 and $107.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.06B1 | $1.74B2 | $1.68B3 | $1.53B3 | $1.31B3 |
| Net income | $150.9M4 | $641.3M5 | $478.6M6 | $250.6M6 | $57M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $351.5M7 | $841.9M8 | $701.1M9 | $367.4M9 | $229.2M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $57.9M10 | $205.2M10 | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $293.7M7 | $636.7M8 | — | — | — |
| Total debt | $679.6M11 | $605.2M12 | $306M13 | $307.2M14 | $308.5M14 |
| Cash & equivalents | $395.8M15 | $829.5M16 | $738.2M16 | $491.5M16 | $300M16 |
| Diluted shares | 51.4M | 51.7M | 52.0M | 52.3M | 52.6M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $407.08 of net worth that earned you $10.84 last year, against $58.65 of debt.
It earned about 23% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 55% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $49.37 and $107.3 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$293.7M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$293.7M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$250.6M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $79.6 |
| Base | 5.0% | $98.9 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $122 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001691303-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001691303-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-048914 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001691303-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001691303-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-048914 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001691303-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001691303-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-048914 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001691303-23-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001691303-23-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001691303-24-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001691303-25-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-048914 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001691303-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-048914 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)