MeritValue

HCA Healthcare, Inc.

HCAdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HCA Healthcare, Inc. earns about 11% on invested capital, and has bought back 27% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $249.23 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$58.8B1$60.2B2$65B3$70.6B3$75.6B3
Net income$6.96B4$5.64B5$5.24B6$5.76B6$6.78B6
Operating cash flow$8.96B7$8.52B8$9.43B9$10.5B9$12.6B9
Capital expenditure$3.58B10$4.4B11$4.74B12$4.88B12$4.94B12
Free cash flow (derived)$5.38B7$4.13B8$4.69B9$5.64B9$7.69B9
Total debt$69.2B13$76.2B14$79.2B15$90.8B16$90.8B16
Cash & equivalents$1.45B17$908M18$935M19$1.93B20$1.04B20
Diluted shares328.8M294.7M276.4M261.8M239.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$251.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$283.26
Free cash flow it threw off
$321.18
Debt you’d be carrying
$3,790.35

10 shares is a claim on −$251.65 of net worth that earned you $283.26 and generated $321.18 of cash last year, against $3,790.35 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 11%FY23 10%FY24 10%FY25 11%

It earned an average 11% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−27% shares · 5y

Share count is down 27% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 31% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth1.6%
  • fcfBase$5.64B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth1.6%
  • fcfBase$5.64B
Earnings Power Value
$249.23
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$5.76B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016524 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-020134 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-044769 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016524 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-020134 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-044769 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016524 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-020134 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-044769 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016524 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-020134 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-044769 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003234 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016524 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-020134 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-044769 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003234 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016524 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-020134 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-044769 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)