MeritValue

HBT Financial, Inc.

HBTdata completeness 75%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

HBT Financial, Inc. earns about 493% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 14% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $21.58 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$128.2M1$153.1M2$229M3$251.7M3$255.8M3
Net income$56.3M4$56.5M5$65.8M6$71.8M6$77M6
Operating cash flow$43M7$72.6M8$65.8M9$89.4M9$85.1M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$409.3M10$114.2M11$141.3M12$137.7M13$122.3M13
Diluted shares27.8M28.9M31.7M31.7M31.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$194.71
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$24.36
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $194.71 of net worth that earned you $24.36 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
493% avg · 5y
FY21 2317%FY22 24%FY23 27%FY24 52%FY25 45%

It earned an average 493% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+14% shares · 5y

Share count is up 14% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$21.58
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$65.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$32.69
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-009388 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011264 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000775215-26-000025 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-009388 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011264 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000775215-26-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-009388 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011264 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000775215-26-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003139 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-009388 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011264 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000775215-26-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)