MeritValue

HORIZON BANCORP INC /IN/

HBNCdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HORIZON BANCORP INC /IN/ earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.9 and $20.48 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$194.1M1$236M2$312.3M3$356.5M3$362.8M3
Net income$87.1M4$93.4M5$28M6$35.4M6−$150.5M6
Operating cash flow$106.4M7$94.4M8$88.9M9$6.37M9$79.2M9
Capital expenditure$1.44M10$6.43M11$7.78M12$5.08M12$4.96M12
Free cash flow (derived)$104.9M7$88M8$81.2M9$1.28M9$74.3M9
Total debt$712.7M13$1.14B14$1.35B15$1.23B16$248.6M16
Cash & equivalents$593.5M17$123.5M18$526.5M19$293.4M20$139.5M20
Diluted shares44.0M43.7M43.8M44.1M46.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$148.05
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$32.37
Free cash flow it threw off
$15.98
Debt you’d be carrying
$53.47

10 shares is a claim on $148.05 of net worth that earned you −$32.37 and generated $15.98 of cash last year, against $53.47 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 7%FY23 8%FY24 13%FY25 3%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 65% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.9 and $20.48 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$18.76
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$74.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$20.48
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$74.3M
Earnings Power Value
$7.9
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$35.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $20.48
The three cases
Bear0.0%$20.48
Base0.0%$20.48
Bull5.0%$26.01

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000706129-24-000015 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000706129-25-000036 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000706129-26-000024 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000706129-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000706129-25-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000706129-26-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000706129-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000706129-25-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000706129-26-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000706129-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000706129-25-000036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000706129-26-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000706129-23-000034 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000706129-24-000015 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000706129-25-000036 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000706129-26-000024 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000706129-22-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000706129-26-000024 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000706129-25-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000706129-26-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)