MeritValue

Hudbay Minerals Inc.

HBMdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Hudbay Minerals Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 51% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.84 and $35.17 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.5B1$1.46B2$1.69B3$2.02B4$2.21B4
Net income−$244.4M5$70.4M6$66.4M7$76.7M8$568.5M8
Operating cash flow$385.1M9$487.8M10$476.9M11$666.2M12$707.3M12
Capital expenditure$352.2M13$309M14$281.1M15$347.1M16$466.7M16
Free cash flow (derived)$32.9M9$178.8M10$195.8M11$319.1M12$240.6M12
Total debt$1.18B17$1.18B18$1.29B19$1.11B20$1.01B20
Cash & equivalents$271M21$225.7M22$249.8M23$541.8M23$568.9M23
Diluted shares261.5M261.9M310.8M394.9M395.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$81.69
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$14.37
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.08
Debt you’d be carrying
$25.5

10 shares is a claim on $81.69 of net worth that earned you $14.37 and generated $6.08 of cash last year, against $25.5 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 -4%FY22 5%FY23 4%FY24 5%FY25 16%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+51% shares · 5y

Share count is up 51% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 15% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.84 and $35.17 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$35.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$240.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$18.72
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$240.6M
Earnings Power Value
$1.84
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$70.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$16.27
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $18.72
The three cases
Bear0.0%$7.58
Base20.0%$18.72
Bull20.0%$18.72

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062993-23-008179 (Revenue)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062993-24-007306 (Revenue)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062993-25-006369 (Revenue)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001062993-26-001648 (Revenue)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062993-23-008179 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062993-24-007306 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062993-25-006369 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001062993-26-001648 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062993-23-008179 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062993-24-007306 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062993-25-006369 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001062993-26-001648 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062993-23-008179 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062993-24-007306 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062993-25-006369 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  16. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001062993-26-001648 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  17. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062993-23-008179 (Borrowings)
  18. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062993-24-007306 (Borrowings)
  19. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062993-25-006369 (Borrowings)
  20. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001062993-26-001648 (Borrowings)
  21. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062993-24-007306 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  22. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062993-25-006369 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  23. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062993-26-001648 (CashAndCashEquivalents)