MeritValue

HARVARD BIOSCIENCE INC

HBIOdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HARVARD BIOSCIENCE INC earns about -13% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 10% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.6 and $5.93 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$118.9M1$113.3M2$112.3M3$94.1M4$86.6M4
Net income−$288,0005−$9.52M6−$3.42M7−$12.4M8−$56.7M8
Operating cash flow$1.26M9$1.15M10$14M11$1.44M12$6.73M12
Capital expenditure$1.2M13$1.59M14$1.79M15$2.64M16$1.26M16
Free cash flow (derived)$67,0009−$438,00010$12.2M11−$1.2M12$5.47M12
Total debt$96.9M17$93.9M18$73.4M19$73.9M20$71.7M20
Cash & equivalents$7.82M21$4.51M22$4.28M23$4.11M24$8.61M24
Diluted shares40.3M41.4M42.4M43.5M44.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$3.09
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$12.77
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.23
Debt you’d be carrying
$16.16

10 shares is a claim on $3.09 of net worth that earned you −$12.77 and generated $1.23 of cash last year, against $16.16 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-13% avg · 5y
FY21 -0%FY22 -4%FY23 -1%FY24 -5%FY25 -55%

It earned about -13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+10% shares · 5y

Share count is up 10% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 26% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.6 and $5.93 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$5.93
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$5.47M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$2.6
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$5.47M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $2.6
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.34
Base20.0%$2.6
Bull20.0%$2.6

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-23-001566 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-001239 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-001472 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001171843-26-001548 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-23-001566 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-001239 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-001472 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001171843-26-001548 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-23-001566 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-001239 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-001472 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001171843-26-001548 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-23-001566 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-001239 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-001472 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001171843-26-001548 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-23-001566 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-001239 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-001472 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001171843-26-001548 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-23-001566 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-001239 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-001472 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001171843-26-001548 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)