MeritValue

HILLS BANCORPORATION

HBIAdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'

The thesis, from the filings

HILLS BANCORPORATION earns about 15% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.6 and $55.74 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$48.1M1$47.8M2$38.2M3$47.6M3$60.5M3
Operating cash flow$85.1M4$56.5M5$52.8M6$55.5M6$68.8M6
Capital expenditure$1.46M7$1.91M8$3.03M9$4.5M9$3.67M9
Free cash flow (derived)$83.6M4$54.6M5$49.8M6$51M6$65.1M6
Total debt——$219M10$546.6M11$586.9M11
Cash & equivalents$781.9M12$36.6M13$59.5M14$123.4M15$42.1M15
Diluted shares9.3M9.3M9.2M9.1M8.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$617.51
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$68.15
Free cash flow it threw off
$73.37
Debt you’d be carrying
$661.04

10 shares is a claim on $617.51 of net worth that earned you $68.15 and generated $73.37 of cash last year, against $661.04 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 15%FY23 13%FY24 15%FY25 17%

It earned about 15% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 168% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.6 and $55.74 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$14.6
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$51M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$20.78
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$51M
Earnings Power Value
$55.74
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$47.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$97.27
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $20.78
The three cases
Bear0.0%$20.78
Base0.0%$20.78
Bull5.0%$40.66

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000732417-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000732417-25-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000732417-26-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000732417-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000732417-25-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000732417-26-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000732417-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000732417-25-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000732417-26-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000732417-25-000015 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000732417-26-000022 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000732417-23-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000732417-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000732417-25-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000732417-26-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)