MeritValue

HOME BANCORP, INC.

HBCPdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

HOME BANCORP, INC. earns about 35% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $53.15 and $98.8 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$106.9M1$125.9M2$163.7M3$184.8M3$193.8M3
Net income$48.6M4$34.1M5$40.2M6$36.4M6$46.1M6
Operating cash flow$55.7M7$51.2M8$41.4M9$48.7M9$54.5M9
Capital expenditure$2.47M10$2.71M11$2.02M12$4.06M12$10.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$53.2M7$48.5M8$39.3M9$44.7M9$44.3M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$601.4M13$87.4M14$75.8M14$98.5M14$141.6M14
Diluted shares8.4M8.2M8.1M8.0M7.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$554.54
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$58.71
Free cash flow it threw off
$56.52
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $554.54 of net worth that earned you $58.71 and generated $56.52 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
35% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 17%FY23 26%FY24 45%FY25 52%

It earned about 35% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $53.15 and $98.8 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$92.72
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$44.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$98.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$44.3M
Earnings Power Value
$53.15
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$40.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$85.58
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $98.8
The three cases
Bear0.0%$98.8
Base0.0%$98.8
Bull5.0%$118.34

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001436425-24-000009 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001436425-25-000012 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015669 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001436425-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001436425-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015669 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001436425-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001436425-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015669 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001436425-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001436425-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015669 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001436425-25-000012 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015669 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)