MeritValue

HUNTINGTON BANCSHARES INC /MD/

HBANdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HUNTINGTON BANCSHARES INC /MD/ earns about 18% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 17% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $13.44 and $29.32 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.11B1$1.32B2$1.4B3$1.47B3$1.56B3
Net income$1.3B4$2.24B5$1.95B6$1.94B6$2.21B6
Operating cash flow$2.06B7$4.03B8$2.66B9$1.84B9$2.48B9
Capital expenditure$247M10$214M11$140M12$143M12$267M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.82B7$3.81B8$2.52B9$1.69B9$2.22B9
Total debt$7.44B13$11.7B14$13B15$16.6B16$18.5B16
Cash & equivalents$5.52B17$6.7B18$10.1B18$12.8B18$13.5B18
Diluted shares1.29B1.47B1.47B1.48B1.50B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$161.76
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$14.69
Free cash flow it threw off
$14.72
Debt you’d be carrying
$122.82

10 shares is a claim on $161.76 of net worth that earned you $14.69 and generated $14.72 of cash last year, against $122.82 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 12%FY23 22%FY24 27%FY25 25%

It earned about 18% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+17% shares · 5y

Share count is up 17% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 148% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $13.44 and $29.32 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$29.32
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth6.9%
  • fcfBase$2.22B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$24.95
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth6.9%
  • fcfBase$2.22B
Earnings Power Value
$13.44
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.95B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$22.49
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years6.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $24.95
The three cases
Bear0.0%$17.72
Base6.9%$24.95
Bull11.9%$31.45

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 6.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000049196-24-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000049196-25-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000049196-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000049196-24-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000049196-25-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000049196-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000049196-24-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000049196-25-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000049196-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000049196-24-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000049196-25-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000049196-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000049196-23-000020 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000049196-24-000020 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000049196-25-000020 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000049196-26-000015 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000049196-25-000020 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000049196-26-000015 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)